Eurostar Orders First Double-Decker Trains
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
Eurostar has revealed plans to run double-decker trains through the Channel Tunnel for the first time.
These three paragraphs add more details.
The cross-channel rail operator has confirmed it will order up to 50 trains from manufacturer Alstom, eventually increasing the size of its fleet by nearly a third.
The expansion plans would include investing heavily in a crucial London depot, it said.
But questions remain over whether the facility has enough space for both Eurostar and potential rival operators to use it.
This my solution to the problem outlined in the last paragraph.
Note, that I wrote the software that planned the building of the Channel Tunnel and the rail links to London and was also friends with the project manager of the 1960s attempt to build a Channel Tunnel.
We need more terminal platforms and depot space in the UK to handle Eurostar’s extra trains and the other companies who want to run to London.
We should split services into two groups.
Group 1 would terminate as now in an updated St. Pancras with more passenger handling capacity, which could probably be built over the tracks at the Northern end of the station. Trains would still be stabled at Temple Mills.
Group 2 would terminate at Ebbsfleet International, which would have extra platforms, a new depot, masses of car parking and a coach terminal.
Some trains from both groups could also stop at Ashford International.
To access Ebbsfleet from Central London and also create a Heathrow link to the Channel Tunnel, the Lizzie Line would be extended to Northfleet, where there is space to handle up to eight trains per hour in new platforms built in two disused sidings.
This OpenRailwayMap shows the location of Northfleet and Ebbsfleet stations.
Note.
- Ebbsfleet International station at the bottom of the map.
- The red tracks are High Speed One.
- The orange tracks are third-rail electrified lines.
- The orange tracks going across the map is the North Kent Line.
- Northfleet station is at the right edge of the map on the North Kent Line.
- Northfleet and Ebbsfleet stations are less than a kilometer apart.
- Ebbsfleet has a lot of car parking spaces.
I believe a spectacular cable-car or other link would connect Northfleet and Ebbsfleet stations.
These are some other thoughts.
Ebbsfleet International Station Has Good Motorway Access
This Google Map shows the location of Ebbsfleet International station in relation to the motorways.
Note.
- The A2/M2 road runs across the bottom half of the map.
- The red arrow marks the position of Ebbsfleet International station.
- The Dartford Crossing is a few miles West of the station.
In my last few years, as an Ipswich season ticket holder, I regularly had a lift to Ebbsfleet International from a friend and the route to the station from the M25 and the A2/M2 wasn’t bad.
But it will be getting better.
This map from the Government’s consultation on the Lower Thames Crossing, shows the road layout in a few years.

Note.
- The Lower Thames Crossing is shown in red.
- Ebbsfleet International station is about a mile South of Northfleet
- The new crossing will connect to the A2, a few miles East of the link road to the station.
Travellers from much of the East of and Middle England could use the new crossing to get to Ebbsfleet International station.
These are current times from Google.
- Birmingham – 2 hours and 41 minutes
- Cambridge – 1 hour and 17 minutes
- Edinburgh – 7 hours and 44 minutes
- Fishguard – 5 hours and 29 minutes
- Glasgow – 7 hours and 6 minutes
- Holyhead – 5 hours and 29 minutes
- Hull – 4 hours and 1 minute
- Ipswich – 1 hour and 29 minutes
- Leeds – 3 hours and 55 minutes
- Liverpool – 4 hours and 40 minutes
- Manchester – 4 hours and 28 minutes
- Milton Keynes – 1 hour and 37 minutes
- Newcastle 5 hours and 25 minutes
- Norwich – 2 hours 23 minutes
- Nottingham – 2 hours and 55 minutes
- Peterborough – 1 hour and 54 minutes
- Sheffield – 3 hours and 35 minutes
- Stoke-on-Trent – 3 hours and 25 minutes
- York – 4 hours and 16 minutes
Note.
- I would suspect that the opening of the Lower Thames Crossing will knock 10-15 minutes off these times.
- Edinburgh, Glasgow, Hull, Leeds, Newcastle, Nottingham, Peterborough, Sheffield and York would probably be quicker to Europe with a change to Continental train services at St. Pancras, rather than Ebbsfleet International.
- With improvements to rail services, more of these journeys will be quicker by train.
- High Speed Two should connect Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester and Stoke-on-Trent to London, by the mid 2030s.
But there are some, who always feel their car is safer in a car park!
Ebbsfleet International Station Has A Large Amount Of Car Parking
This map shows the car parks at Ebbsfleet International station.
Note.
- Some of the parking areas are marked with a P.
- It is easy to pick-up and drop passengers.
- The car parks could be double-decked to add more spaces if needed.
- According to the Ebbsfleet International web site, the station currently has 5225 parking spaces, 68 accessible car parking spaces.
For those that have a lot of luggage or a large family, taking the car to Ebbsfleet International may be the best option.
Ebbsfleet International Station Should Have A Coach Station
Consider.
- In the next few years, hydrogen-powered coaches with a thousand kilometre range will come to dominate the long distance coach market.
- Mercedes and Wrightbus are know to be developing long-distance hydrogen-powered coaches.
- Hydrogen-powered coaches will be able to reach all of England and Wales and a large part of Scotland from Ebbsfleet International.
- Ebbsfleet International is closely connected to the UK motorway network.
- Continental coaches using the Channel Tunnel, could use Ebbsfleet as a coach interchange with the UK.
- Ebbsfleet International could also handle customs services for Continental coach services, which would take the pressure off the Channel Tunnel and the ferries.
- Ebbsfleet International could also have a coach link to Gatwick Airport.
These and other reasons make me feel, that a coach terminal at Ebbsfleet International is essential.
A Green Connection Between The Two Halves Of The European Union For the Gretas Of This World
Consider.
- There is no zero-carbon route between the island of Ireland and Continental Europe.
- Eurostar is all-electric between London and Continental Europe, but only serves a limited number of destinations.
- Low- or zero-carbon ferries are being designed, that run on hydrogen.
- Trains between London and the Irish ferries are diesel-powered.
- The simplest solution would surely be to run hydrogen-powered coaches between Ebbsfleet International and Fishguard and/or Holyhead. Both journeys would take three and a half hours.
Hydrogen-powered coaches are under development by Wrightbus.
I also asked Google AI if anybody is planning zero-carbon ferries between the UK and ireland and received this answer.
Yes, there are plans for zero-carbon ferries between the UK and Ireland, with a specific “Green Corridor” feasibility study underway for the Holyhead to Dublin route, and a separate, separate commuter service project planned between Belfast and Bangor. The Belfast Maritime Consortium is developing the zero-carbon commuter service, and a separate “Green Corridor” feasibility study is assessing potential low-carbon pathways between Holyhead and Dublin
I believe the green connection is feasible, provided the following happens.
- Ebbsfleet International is reopened and developed as a station for Continental Europe.
- The zero-carbon ferries are developed.
- The busmasters from Ballymena deliver the ultimate hydrogen-powered coach.
- Hydrogen and other fuels are made available, where they is needed.
This could do wonders for the economy of the island of Ireland.
Out of curiosity, I did ask Google AI, what is the longest coach route in the UK and received this answer.
The longest scheduled coach journey in the UK is the Scottish Citylink route from Glasgow to Uig on the Isle of Skye (route 915 or 916), which is about 230 miles and takes around 7 hours and 50 minutes. Historically, there have been much longer international bus routes, such as the Penn Overland tour from London to Ceylon, but these were not regular, scheduled services.
So my proposal at five hours and 29 minutes is only a short hop.
I also believe that with good project management that the additional infrastructure could be built by 2030, with little or no disruption to existing services.
High Speed Two To Holyhead
Rishi Sunak has just announced that the North Wales Main Line will be electrified, along with the cancellation of further phases of High Speed Two.
I have written about this topic before in Could High Speed Two Serve Holyhead?.
In that post, I started with this question and answer.
Why?
It could be a way to create a zero- or low-carbon route between the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
In Could High Speed Two Finish At Lichfield?, I discussed, what might happen if the Birmingham to Manchester leg of High Speed Two were to be scrapped.
This was my main conclusion.
I strongly believe that an upgraded Trent Valley Line linked to a shortened High Speed Two at Lichfield could improve journey times between London, Birmingham and the North.
As the current Holyhead services will pass this junction between the Trent Valley Line and High Speed Two, there is no reason, why they couldn’t take High Speed Two to and from London, if the service was run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible Trains.
These are further thoughts.
Timings
These would be the times in hours:minutes.
- Bangor – 2:42
- Chester – 1:28
- Holyhead – 3:10
- Llandudno Junction – 2:24
Currently, Holyhead is three hours and forty-five minutes.
Would the Electrification Be Full Or Partial Between Crewe And Holyhead?
This question will be increasingly asked about electrification.
Consider.
- CAF, Hitachi, Siemens and Stadler are all developing battery-electric technology for trains.
- The UK’s first battery-electric train service goes into service tomorrow between Liverpool and Headbolt Lane station.
- Freight locomotives are increasingly being ordered with both electric and diesel power.
- Some of the castles, countryside and other monuments wouldn’t be enhanced, with lots of overhead electrification.
I think it is likely, that electrification will increasingly have gaps for visual, technical or heritage reasons.
Electrification of the North Wales Coast Line with other small improvements could probably reduce the journey time between London and Holyhead to around three hours.
Would There Be Enough Paths On The Trent Valley Line And High Speed Two?
This graphic shows High Speed Two services after Phase 2b is completed.
Note.
- Services shown in blue are run by High Speed Two Full Size trains.
- Services shown in yellow are run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- There are a total of 23 train paths of which eleven would need to go along the Trent Valley Line.
- The three London-Manchester services and the two Birmingham-Manchester services would have to be run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- The second Liverpool train is only a single train, but it could be a pair, that split at Crewe, with one train going to Liverpool and the other to Chester and North Wales.
- All the Avanti West Coast services, currently using the Trent Valley Line would probably be replaced by High Speed Two services.
There would have to be a bit of reorganising, but I suspect an hourly path could be found for a train between London and Holyhead.
A Fast Green Route To The Emerald Isle
Electrification of the North Wales Coast Line with other small improvements could probably reduce the journey time between London and Holyhead to around three hours.
This service could be paired with a fast zero-carbon ferry to the island of Ireland?
Conclusion
I am fairly sure that an HS2 service to Holyhead could be run, once the North Wales Coast Line is electrified.
See Also
Could High Speed Two Finish At Lichfield?
Train Frequency Focus In North Wales Transport Commission’s Interim Recommendations
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Railway Gazette International.
This is the first paragraph.
The North Wales Transport Commission chaired by Lord Burns has published its interim recommendations for the development and delivery of an integrated multi-modal transport system in the region.
The following sections, outline the recommendations for rail services.
Chester Station Improvements
The North Wales Transport Commission (NWTC) supports proposed improvements at Chester station to enable additional services to operate.
This page on Transport for Wales detailed the improvements at Chester station, where this is said.
Transport for Wales is delivering significant improvements to Chester Station. The project primarily focuses on customer improvements within the station, with work to include new branding and signage, a new passenger assist point, cycle stands, roaming mics and hearing loop systems, a new full station CCTV system, toilet refurbishments on the concourse and platforms 4 and 7, a new changing place toilet, customer waiting room upgrade, water refill unit, platform and concourse seating and waste facilities.
New Customer Information Screens will be installed throughout Chester station increasing the train service information available on the platforms and within the station waiting rooms. We’ll also be installing new screens for onward journeys, including bus, and an interactive screen which will be installed on the concourse.
Improvement works in the concourse also include, repurposing of the ticket office to create a new retail unit for the future, a new rental unit, a new customer service desk with ticket selling facilities, additional ticket vending machines, a repositioned gate line with additional standard and wide aisle gates. A new quiet room will also be introduced as a place for customers who require a safe, isolated space whilst waiting for their train.
TfW is working closely with industry partners to minimise disruption during these works for both customers and the local community. Customers are encouraged to plan in extra time to allow for potential disruption during this work. Signage and hoardings will be erected at the station in advance of and throughout, these significant improvement works, and communications will be provided at the station, onboard services and online, to advise of any temporary changes to accommodate the work on site at the station.
Note.
- It looks a serious level of improvement for customers.
- The Chester and Wrexham Line was improved in 2017, with full double-tracking and higher maximum speeds.
- It looks like completion is some time in 2024.
Nothing is said about extra train services.
North Wales Main Line
The NWTC says this about the North Wales Main Line.
On the North Wales Main Line, it says the priority should be service frequency improvements and supporting infrastructure works between Crewe and Llandudno. Improvements to signalling and line capacity from Llandudno to Bangor and Holyhead would require larger scale works, which should be planned so that they are ready to progress as and when funding is available.
I went to Holyhead earlier in the year and more trains would be welcome.
Borderlands Line
The NWTC says this about the Borderlands Line.
Signalling and line capacity improvements are required along the Borderlands Line, the commission believes. A key constraint is the sidings for the Hanson site at Padeswood, where freight trains block the line for up to an hour, and the commission says this needs to be resolved before other work to improve the line can proceed.
There should be investment to reduce journey times and increase service frequencies between Wrexham and Liverpool to significantly increase the attractiveness of the route.
I talked about the freight problem in New Trains Could Be Operating Through Flintshire From May But No Green Light For Two An Hour Service.
This map from OpenRailwayMap shows the track layout at Padeswood site.
I was able to follow a train on Real Time Trains, as it left Padeswood Cement Works.
- It moved to the sidings alongside the Borderlands Line.
- It then joined the Borderlands Line and went Northwards through Buckley, Hawarden, Shotton and Hawarden Bridge stations before stopping in Dee Marsh Sidings.
- The engine then changed ends and brought the train back down the Borderlands Line to Wrexham.
- The train then continued to its destination via Ruabon, Gobowen and Shrewsbury.
This movement doesn’t seem too bad, so has there been some signalling and track improvements?
Shrewsbury And Chester Line
The NWTC says this about the Shrewsbury and Chester Line.
The commission says it has not seen a pressing case for full electrification of the Shrewsbury to Chester line, and the priority should be signalling improvements at Gobowen.
I thought that Shrewsbury and Chester might have been electrified, as it could be used to charge battery-electric going between England and Wales. But it will be some years before Transport for Wales get a battery-electric train strategy together.
On the other hand the two cities are only 42 miles apart, which is in range of battery-electric trains.
Conwy Valley And Cambrian Coast Lines
The NWTC says this about the Conwy Valley Line and the Cambrian Coast Line.
There could be merit in introducing increased frequencies on the Conwy Valley and Cambrian Coast lines during the peak season. Service enhancements and infrastructure improvements such as passing loops may be beneficial, ‘as has happened to similar lines in Devon and Cornwall’, but ’in the immediate future, those communities served by stations along the route should have access to enhanced bus services to reduce dependence on car use’.
This seems like a sensible and non-disruptive plan.
Anglesey Central Railway
The NWTC says this about the Anglesey Central Railway to Amlwch.
NWTC ‘is not persuaded’ that there is a case for opening the line to Amlwch, and says ’more urgent improvements to existing lines and services should take a higher priority’.
The Anglesey Central Railway reopening would appear to be a fairly simple project as the track is mostly already there, so this might be the sort of project, that finds itself moving up the list, if related housing or commercial developments are proposed.
This Google Map shows Amlwch and the surrounding area.
With all the tidal, nuclear and wind energy possibilities in the area, I would never rule out the rail link to Amlwch being restored.
Associated Octel used to have bromine works in Amlwch and more details can be found in this web site.
I’ve worked in chemical works with chlorine, fluorine and bromine and my advice is be very careful with them.
Criccieth And Bangor
NWTC says this about reopening the route between Criccieth and Bangor.
NWTC ‘is not persuaded’ that there is a case for opening the line between Criccieth and Bangor, and says ’more urgent improvements to existing lines and services should take a higher priority’.
This OpenRailwayMap shows the area of the reopening.
Note.
- The orange line going across the top of the map is North Wales Coast Line between Chester in the East and the Port of Holyhead on Anglesey.
- Towards the North-East corner of the map, Bangor station is indicated by the blue lettering.
- The Menai Strait runs between the Welsh mainland and the Island of Anglesey.
- The important town of Caernarfon can be picked out.
- The orange line at the bottom of the map is the Cambrian Line, which connects to Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth.
- This line terminates at Pwllheli on the Lleyn Peninsular in the South-West corner of the map.
A dotted line indicates a disused railway between the Southern coast of the peninsular and Bangor via Caernarfon, which I assume is the railway that has been proposed for reinstatement.
It could be a valuable addition to the railways of North Wales and could help to promote tourism.
Station And Other Improvements On The Borderlands Line
This is said about station and other improvements on the Borderlands Line.
The commission supports a new station at Deeside Industrial Park, and enhancements at Shotton to improve connectivity between the high and low-level platforms.
It says frequency enhancements should be prioritised over new stations, and fleet improvements should facilitate the frequency enhancements. It endorses the proposed use of Merseyrail’s Class 777 battery-electric trainsets on the Borderlands Line.
I feel that the Class 777 trains, which could travel under Liverpool are a shoe-in.
Conclusion
North Wales will be getting the railway it need to promote education, employment, leisure and tourism.
Proposed High-Speed Two Services Are Not Complete
This diagram shows High Speed Two services.
Note.
- Trains to the left of the vertical black line are Phase 1 and those to the right are Phase 2.
- Full-Size trains are shown in blue.
- Classic-Compatible trains are shown in yellow.
- The dotted circles are where trains split and join.
- In the red boxes routes alternate every hour.
Click on the diagram to enlarge it.
Are The Services Incomplete Or Has Someone Left Something Out?
Look at trains 4, 5 and 6.
- Train 4 is a pair of Classic-Compatible trains, which split at Crewe, with one going to Liverpool Lime Street and the other to Lancaster.
- Train 5 is a single Classic-Compatible train, that goes to Liverpool Lime Street.
- Train 6 is a single Classic-Compatible train, that goes to Macclesfield.
As an example, Train 5 could be a pair of Classic-Compatible trains, which split at Crewe, with one going to Liverpool Lime Street and the other to Chester, Llandudno, Bangor and Holyhead. I actually believe that this would be a way of creating a low-carbon route to Dublin, with a zero-carbon high-speed ferry from Holyhead.
What to do with Train 6 is more difficult.
- Stafford and Stoke need to be served by High Speed Two.
- Stafford, Stoke and Macclesfield are not stations with long platforms, so may not be suitable places to split a pair of Classic-Compatible trains.
- Places North of Macclesfield to terminate trains are not numerous and probably only Manchester and Huddersfield may be suitable.
The alternative might be to split a pair of Classic-Compatible trains forming Train 6 at Birmingham Interchange, one going to Stafford, Stoke and Macclesfield and the other going to Blackburn, Blackpool, Crewe, Lancaster, Liverpool or Preston
West Coast Main Line Electro-Diesels On Test
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Railway Gazette.
This is the first paragraph.
The first two of 13 Hitachi Class 805 electro-diesel trainsets ordered for Avanti West Coast services are undergoing testing on the West Coast Main Line ahead of entry into service later this year.
These Class 805 trains will go to places like Chester, Bangor and Holyhead via Crewe.
It is interesting to look at various Crewe to London Euston services this morning.
- 0740 – Class 390 train – From Liverpool – One Stop – 1 hour 40 minutes
- 0755 – Class 221 train – From Holyhead – One Stop – 1 hour 40 minutes
- 0832 – Class 390 train – From Manchester – One Stop – 1 hour 37 minutes
- 0844 – Class 390 train – From Glasgow – 1 hour 28 minutes
Note.
- The first field is the four-figure time that the train left Crewe.
- The last field is the journey time between Crewe to London Euston.
- The Class 390 and 805 trains will use electricity to run between Crewe and London Euston, whereas the Class 221 train will use diesel.
- Crewe and London Euston is 158 miles.
- The Glasgow train covers the 158 miles at an average speed of 107.7 mph.
I have some thoughts.
What Will Be The Time For A Class 805 Train Between Crewe And London Euston?
Consider.
- From Crewe, the Class 805 train will be using the electrification to London Euston.
- The Class 390 train can tilt, whereas the Class 805 train can’t!
- The Class 805 train is at least three tonnes lighter per car, than the Class 390 train.
- The lighter weight and possibly more power of the Class 805 trains, will give better acceleration.
- There is twenty-one years of difference in the build dates of the two trains. In that time, I also suspect that Network Rail have improved the track between Crewe and London Euston.
- Norton Bridge junction has been improved to avoid conflicts.
- It would be very convenient for Avanti West Coast and Network Rail, if the performance under electrification of the two trains were similar.
For these reasons, I believe that the performance of a non-stop Crewe And London Euston service using a Class 805 train will be such that it can match that of a Class 390 train.
I would also expect that with a similar stopping pattern between Crewe And London Euston, there would be little to choose between the two trains.
I can see with its better acceleration and lighter weight that the time between Crewe and London Euston will be perhaps a dozen minutes faster than the current time.
Using the electrification will also save a lot of diesel fuel with all its emissions.
Along The North Wales Coast Line
Consider.
- Crewe and Holyhead is 105.5 miles and takes two hours and two minutes in a typical service.
- These figures give an average speed of 52 mph.
- There are six stops, which are scheduled to take a total of ten minutes.
- About half the North Wales Coast Line has a maximum operating speed of 90 mph, but through Chester, Llandudno Junction and West of Bangor, the operating speed is 75 mph or less.
I am fairly sure, that with both the current Class 221 trains and the new Class 805 trains, it will be the track, rather than the train that determines the average speed.
It would therefore appear that if the average speed can be raised by track improvements these time savings could be achieved.
- 60 mph – 105.5 mins – 16.5 mins
- 70 mph – 90 mins – 32.5 mins
- 80 mph – 79 mins – 43 mins
- 90 mph – 70 mins – 52 mins
- 100 mph – 63 mins – 59 mins
- 110 mph – 58 mins – 64 mins
- 120 mph – 53 mins – 69 mins
- 130 mph – 49 mins – 73 mins
- 140 mph – 45 mins – 77 mins
Note.
- The first column is the average speed.
- The second column is the time between Holyhead and Crewe.
- The third column is the saving.
- I suspect that 90 or 100 mph would be the highest possible practical average speed.
- Trains average 100 mph on several long sections of the Great Eastern Main Line.
- I put in the higher speeds to show what is possible, if the North Wales Coast Line were to be converted into a 140 mph electrified line with digital signalling.
Even at these relatively slow speeds compared to High Speed Two, there are considerable time savings to be made, just by improving the tracks.
Incidentally, High Speed Two is quoted in Wikipedia as aiming for a Crewe and London Euston time of 56 minutes, so by averaging 100 mph between Crewe and Holyhead, London Euston and Holyhead could be under two hours.
Batteries And Class 805 Trains
I wouldn’t be surprised that soon after the Class 805 trains are delivered, they could be converted to a version of Hitachi’s Intercity Tri-Mode Battery Train, the specification of which is shown in this Hitachi infographic.
Note.
- I suspect that the batteries will be used to handle regenerative braking on lines without electrification, which will save diesel fuel and carbon emissions.
- The trains accelerate faster, than those they replace.
- The claimed fuel and carbon saving is twenty percent.
- It is intended that these trains will be introduced in 2023.
But Hitachi have not given any predictions of the range of these trains on battery power alone.
However, they do claim a battery range of 56 miles for the Hitachi Regional Battery Train, which is based on similar technology.
These trains could help in speeding the stops between Crewe and Holyhead.
- Batteries would be charged at Holyhead and on the electrification to the South of Crewe.
- At each stop, trains would use a proportion of the power in the battery to accelerate faster and save fuel and cut emissions.
- Battery power would be used in stations for train hotel power.
- Westbound trains would arrive in Holyhead and Southbound trains would arrive in Crewe, with not much power in the battery.
I suspect that, whether diesel or battery power is used, will be controlled by a sophisticated computerised control system.
Electrification Along The North Wales Coast Line
I think this will eventually happen to allow High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains to run to Chester and along the North Wales Coast Line to Llandudno, Bangor and Holyhead.
But there is no benefit to be gained in electrifying until higher speeds are possible, after track improvements.
I believe these times will be possible with track improvements and the opening of High Speed Two.
- Holyhead and Crewe – Class 805 train and 80 mph average – 79 mins
- Holyhead and Crewe – Class 805 train and 90 mph average – 70 mins
- Holyhead and Crewe – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train, electrification and 100 mph average – 63 mins
- Crewe and London Euston – Class 805 train – 80 mins
- Crewe and London Euston – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train – 56 mins
Note, electrification will be needed, to run High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains along the North Wales Coast Line.
I am confident that these times will be possible.
- Holyhead and London Euston – Class 805 train and 90 mph average along the coast – 2 hours 30 mins
- Holyhead and London Euston – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train and 100 mph average along the coast – 2 hours
The current time between Holyhead and London Euston is over three hours 45 minutes.
Conclusion
These trains will certainly speed up trains to North Wales.
UK And Welsh Governments To Explore New Rail Links Between South Wales And England
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from the UK Government.
These are the three bullet points.
- UK and Welsh governments today (2 February 2023) announce a new study to improve transport connectivity between south-east Wales and west of England
- the study, backed by £2.7 million of UK government funding, will look at options for new railway stations and rail services on the South Wales Main Line
- this project will focus on relieving congestion on the M4, a vital connector between south Wales and the rest of the UK
The stations are not named, but it is said that they could be between Cardiff and the Severn Tunnel.
The last paragraph changes direction a bit.
Lord Peter Hendy also proposed reviewing the route connecting north Wales to the north-west of England, better connectivity with HS2 and a package of railway improvements to increase connectivity and reduce journey times between Cardiff, Birmingham and beyond.
I find this development very interesting, but typical of the sensible approach one would expect from Lord Peter.
In Could High Speed Two Serve Holyhead?, I looked at the route and came to this conclusion.
London Euston and Holyhead could be a serious proposition.
With some development and a new fast ferry, it could also open up a practical zero-carbon route between Great Britain and Ireland.
Times of four and a half hours between London Euston and Dublin could be possible.
I suspect that time would appeal to green tourists, especially those in First with a good meal.
Plan For New Nuclear Reactors At Wylfa And Trawsfynydd A Step Closer As Natural Resource Wales Looks At Designs
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on nation.cymru.
These are the first two paragraphs.
Plans for new nuclear power stations at Trawsfynydd and Wylfa have taken a step closer after the UK Government asked government regulators to assess designs for the reactors.
Natural Resources Wales will be among those assessing the designs by Rolls-Royce, with both Wylfa and Trawsfynydd have been named as potential sites for housing them within the UK.
These are points about the reactors.
- They will cost £1.8 billion each.
- They are capable of powering a city the size of Cardiff, which has a population of about half-a-million.
- I’ve read elsewhere that the reactors are planned to have a nameplate capacity of 470 MW.
The article did mention, that the Nimbys were lining up.
The Wylfa Site
The original Wylfa power station was a Magnox nuclear station generating 980 MW, that was decommissioned in 2015.
This Google Map shows the location of the site on Anglesey.
This second Google Map shows the site in more detail.
The power station doesn’t appear to have had a rail link, but there is a railway line a few miles away, with sidings that might have been used to handle fuel flasks.
There has been a proposal for a hybrid plant consisting of a wind farm and small modular nuclear reactors, which is described in this Wikipedia section, where this is said.
In January 2021, Shearwater Energy presented plans for a hybrid plant, to consist of a wind farm and small modular reactors (SMRs), to be installed adjacent to the existing Wylfa power station but separate from the proposed Wylfa Newydd site. Shearwater has signed a memorandum of understanding with NuScale Power for the SMRs. The plant could start generation as early as 2027 and would ultimately produce up to 3 GW of electricity and power a hydrogen generation unit producing up to 3 million kg of hydrogen per year.
Note.
- Wylfa Newydd was a proposal by Hitachi to build a nuclear station on the site.
- Shearwater Energy is a UK developer of energy opportunities.
- NuScale Power is an American company with its own design of small modular nuclear reactor.
In Holyhead Hydrogen Hub Planned For Wales, I talked about hydrogen and the port of Holyhead.
The Trawsfynydd Site
The original Trawsfynydd power station was a Magnox nuclear station generating 470 MW, that was decommissioned in 1991.
This Google Map shows the location of the site in North Wales.
This second Google Map shows the site in more detail.
Note.
- The power station was built on the Northern shore of Llyn Trawsfynydd.
- Llyn Trawsfynydd is a man-made lake, that was built in the 1920s to supply water to the 24 MW Maentwrog hydro electric power station.
- There is a railway from near the site, that connects to the Conwy Valley Line at Blaenau Ffestiniog.
The Trawsfynydd site is a lot more than just a decommissioned Magnox power station.
Pumped Energy Storage In Snowdonia
Currently, there are two existing pumped storage in Snowdonia.
- Dinorwig power station, which is often called Electric Mountain, which has a capacity of 9.1 GWh.
- Ffestiniog power station, which has a capacity of around 1 GWh. If anybody has a better figure let me know!
A third scheme is under development at Glyn Rhonwy, which could have a capacity of 700 MWh.
Looking at the size of Llyn Trawsfynydd, I do wonder, if it could be the top lake of a future pumped storage scheme.
- Llyn Trawsfynydd, contains 40 million tonnes of water.
- There is a head of 190 metres.
That could give energy storage of 20 GWh. That sounds a lot of GWhs! But with two possible small modular nuclear reactors at possibly 500 MW each nearby and some help from windfarms, it could be filled within a day, if there is a suitable low-level reservoir.
Rolls-Royce And The Duisburg Container Terminal
In Rolls-Royce Makes Duisburg Container Terminal Climate Neutral With MTU Hydrogen Technology, I showed how Rolls-Royce and its subsidiary were providing an innovative climate neutral solution for Duisburg Container Terminal in Germany.
A North West Wales Powerhouse
Could Rolls-Royce be planning a Duisburg-style solution for North West Wales.
- Small modular nuclear reactors at Wylfa and Trawsfynydd.
- Hydrogen electrolysers to create hydrogen for the Port of Holyhead and heavy transport.
- Adequate pumped hydro storage for surplus energy.
But there could be little serious above-ground construction.
Conclusion
Something is awakening in North West Wales.
The East Coast Main Line And The A14
I finally managed to get pictures of the new route of the A14 as it crosses over the East Coast Main Line.
This Google Map shows the crossing from above.
I do wonder, why in the 1990s, when they created the A14, they didn’t do a proper job?
But then history shows that Governments don’t seem to get East-West links in the UK right.
- Road and rail links across the Pennines are inadequate.
- Only recently have Edinburgh and Glasgow been properly connected by rail.
- The electrification of the Great Western Railway between London and Swansea has been an on-off project, that should have been done after electrification of the East Coast Main Line, before the team of engineers had been disbanded.
- Road and rail links to the port of Holyhead were ignored for years and could be improved again.
- The Varsity Line between Oxford and Cambridge was recommended by Beeching to be kept, but Harold Wilson closed it and now we are recreating it.
Is it because none of these routes are of much importance for politicians and civil servants living in London?
Could High Speed Two Serve Holyhead?
Why?
It could be a way to create a zero- or low-carbon route between the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
Battery-Electric Trains Could Be The Solution
In Will High Speed Two’s Classic-Compatible Trains Have Battery Operation?, I suggested that it might be feasible for High Speed Two’s Classic-Compatible trains to have batteries.
I said this at the start of that post.
I believe it is very likely, that High Speed Two’s new classic-compatible trains will have battery capabilities.
-
- Batteries would handle energy generated by regenerative braking.
- Batteries would give a train recovery capability in case of overhead catenary failure.
- Batteries would be used for depot movements.
- Batteries would probably improve the energy efficiency of the trains.
Effectively, the batteries would power the train and would be topped-up by the electrification and the regenerative braking.
Since I wrote that post in February 2020, Hitachi have launched two battery-electric trains, one of which is the Hitachi Intercity Tri-Mode Battery Train, which is described in this Hitachi infographic.
As diesel (or should I say Stuart) engines are so nineteenth-century. any high speed independently-powered train would probably use batteries, have no diesel engines and be a battery-electric train.
So could Hitachi or any other bidder for the High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains produce a train, that would be capable of handling the long-distance routes from London, that would be difficult or expensive to electrify, by the use of batteries?
- Batteries will improve dramatically in the next few years.
- Batteries will also become more affordable.
- Engineers will also learn how to package them in better and more innovative ways.
I think it is very likely, that a High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train could be produced with a reliable range of over eighty miles on batteries.
Holyhead And Crewe By Battery-Electric Classic-Compatible High Speed Train
These are the distances between stops on the route between Holyhead and Crewe
- Holyhead and Bangor – 25 miles.
- Bangor and Llandudno Junction – 16 miles
- Llandudno Junction and Colwyn Bay – 4 miles
- Colwyn Bay and Rhyl – 10 miles
- Rhyl and Prestatyn – 4 miles
- Prestatyn and Flint – 14 miles
- Flint and Chester – 13 miles
- Chester and Crewe – 21 miles
Note.
- It is a route of only 105 miles.
- There is no 25 KVAC electrification, except at Crewe.
- It is nearly all double-track.
- The operating speed is 90 mph
- The route is also generally flat and mainly along the coast.
Suppose the following were to be done.
- Erect traditional electrification between Chester and Crewe.
- Hitachi ABB Power Grids build a section of their discontinuous electrification around Llandudno Junction.
- Install a battery charging system at Holyhead.
An alternative might be to put another section of discontinuous electrification through Bangor, if installing the charging station at Holyhead proved to be difficult.
I believe it would be possible to run a High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train equipped with batteries between London Euston and Holyhead.
What Time Would Be Possible?
Consider.
- High Speed Two are predicting 56 minutes between London Euston and Crewe.
- Avanti West Coast are showing journey times of one hour and 57 minutes between Crewe and Holyhead.
- Avanti West Coast are using 125 mph Class 221 trains, but are restricted to a lot less than this speed.
- The HSC Dublin Swift can sail between Dublin and Holyhead in several minutes under two hours.
I believe that a High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train equipped with batteries could go between London Euston and Holyhead in under three hours.
If this were to be linked to the latest hydrogen-powered fast ferry between Holyhead and Dublin, would London Euston and Dublin be fast enough to attract passengers from the airlines?
- The journey time could be under five hours.
- It would be zero-carbon.
- By cutting stops to the West of Chester and track improvements train times could be reduced.
- It would be the sort of adventure, that some families like!
I think that Avanti West Coast and the ferry company could have a rail and ferry service, that would appeal to many travellers.
Would There Be A Path To Euston For Another High Speed Service?
In How Many Trains Are Needed To Run A Full Service On High Speed Two?, I listed the trains that would use the Western leg of High Speed Two.
- Train 1 – London Euston and Birmingham Curzon Street – 400 metre Full-Size
- Train 2 – London Euston and Birmingham Curzon Street – 400 metre Full-Size
- Train 3 – London Euston and Birmingham Curzon Street – 400 metre Full-Size
- Train 4 – London Euston and Lancaster – Classic Compatible
- Train 4 – London Euston and Liverpool – Classic Compatible
- Train 5 – London Euston and Liverpool – Classic Compatible
- Train 6 – London Euston and Macclesfield – Classic Compatible
- Train 7 – London Euston and Manchester – 400 metre Full-Size
- Train 8 – London Euston and Manchester – 400 metre Full-Size
- Train 9 – London Euston and Manchester – 400 metre Full-Size
- Train 10 – London Euston and Edinburgh – Classic Compatible
- Train 10 – London Euston and Glasgow – Classic Compatible
- Train 11 – London Euston and Edinburgh – Classic Compatible
- Train 11 – London Euston and Glasgow – Classic Compatible
- Train 12 – Birmingham Curzon Street and Edinburgh or Glasgow – Classic Compatible
- Train 13 – Birmingham Curzon Street and Manchester – 200 metre Full-Size
- Train 14 – Birmingham Curzon Street and Manchester – 200 metre Full-Size
Note.
- A lot of the paths into London Euston would appear to be allocated.
- Train 4 is a pair of 200 metre long Classic-Compatible trains, that will split and join at Crewe, with one train going to Liverpool and the other going to Lancaster.
- Train 5 is only a single 200 metre long Classic-Compatible train.
I suspect it would be possible to make Train 5 a pair of 200 metre long Classic-Compatible trains, that will split and join at Crewe, with one train going to Liverpool and the other going to Chester and Holyhead.
It does appear that the proposed timetable for High Speed Two has been designed so extra trains can be added if the demand is there.
What Times Would Be Possible Between Holyhead And Crewe?
Consider.
- I have looked at the route from my virtual helicopter and suspect that much of the route can be upgraded to 100 mph running.
- The current average speed between Holyhead and Crewe is 54 mph.
- London Liverpool Street and Norwich is 114.5 miles and is regularly achieved in ninety minutes on a 100 mph line, which is an average speed of 76 mph.
- The number of stops could be reduced.
I can build a table of times for faster average speeds.
- 60 mph – One hour and 45 minutes – Two hours and 41 minutes
- 70 mph – One hour and 30 minutes – Two hours and 26 minutes
- 80 mph – One hour and 19 minutes – Two hours and 15 minutes
- 90 mph – One hour and 10 minutes – Two hours and 6 minutes
- 100 mph – One hour and 3 minutes – One hour and 59 minutes
Note.
- The first time is Holyhead and Crewe.
- The second time is London and Holyhead.
I am fairly certain, that a substantial time improvement is possible.
Why Not Electrify All The Way Between Holyhead And Crewe?
I am seventy-four and can remember several incidents of serious storms and flooding along the North Wales Coast Line.
There was a warning earlier this year according to this article on the BBC.
Perhaps it would be better to spend the money on improving the resilience and operating speed of the track?
Conclusion
London Euston and Holyhead could be a serious proposition.
With some development and a new fast ferry, it could also open up a practical zero-carbon route between Great Britain and Ireland.
Times of four and a half hours between London Euston and Dublin could be possible.
High-Speed Low-Carbon Transport Between Great Britain And Ireland
Consider.
- According to Statista, there were 13,160,000 passengers between the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic in 2019.
- In 2019, Dublin Airport handled 32,907,673 passengers.
- The six busiest routes from Dublin were Heathrow, Stansted, Amsterdam, Manchester, Birmingham and Stansted.
- In 2018, Belfast International Airport handled 6,269,025 passengers.
- The four busiest routes from Belfast International Airport were Stansted, Gatwick. Liverpool and Manchester, with the busiest route to Europe to Alicante.
- In 2018, Belfast City Airport handled 2,445,529 passengers.
- The four busiest routes from Belfast City Airport were Heathrow, Manchester, Birmingham and London City.
Note.
- The busiest routes at each airport are shown in descending order.
- There is a lot of air passengers between the two islands.
- Much of the traffic is geared towards London’s four main airports.
- Manchester and Liverpool get their fair share.
Decarbonisation of the air routes between the two islands will not be a trivial operation.
But technology is on the side of decarbonisation.
Class 805 Trains
Avanti West Coast have ordered thirteen bi-mode Class 805 trains, which will replace the diesel Class 221 trains currently working between London Euston and Holyhead.
- They will run at 125 mph between Euston and Crewe using electric power.
- If full in-cab digital signalling were to be installed on the electrified portion of the route, they may be able to run at 140 mph in places under the wires.
- They will use diesel power on the North Wales Coast Line to reach Holyhead.
- According to an article in Modern Railways, the Class 805 trains could be fitted with batteries.
I wouldn’t be surprised that when they are delivered, they are a version of the Hitachi’s Intercity Tri-Mode Battery Train, the specification of which is shown in this Hitachi infographic.
Note.
- I suspect that the batteries will be used to handle regenerative braking on lines without electrification, which will save diesel fuel and carbon emissions.
- The trains accelerate faster, than those they replace.
- The claimed fuel and carbon saving is twenty percent.
It is intended that these trains will be introduced next year.
I believe that, these trains will speed up services between London Euston and Holyhead.
- Currently, services take just over three-and-a-half hours.
- There should be time savings on the electrification between London Euston and Crewe.
- The operating speed on the North Wales Coast Line is 90 mph. This might be increased in sections.
- Some extra electrification could be added, between say Crewe and Chester and possibly through Llandudno Junction.
- I estimate that on the full journey, the trains could reduce emissions by up to sixty percent compared to the current diesel trains.
I think that a time of three hours could be achievable with the Class 805 trains.
New trains and a three hour journey time should attract more passengers to the route.
Holyhead
In Holyhead Hydrogen Hub Planned For Wales, I wrote about how the Port of Holyhead was becoming a hydrogen hub, in common with several other ports around the UK including Felixstowe, Harwich, Liverpool and Portsmouth.
Holyhead and the others could host zero-carbon hydrogen-powered ferries.
But this extract from the Wikipedia hints at work needed to be done to create a fast interchange between trains and ferries.
There is access to the port via a building shared with Holyhead railway station, which is served by the North Wales Coast Line to Chester and London Euston. The walk between trains and ferry check in is less than two minutes, but longer from the remote platform 1, used by Avanti West Coast services.
This Google Map shows the Port of Holyhead.
I think there is a lot of potential to create an excellent interchange.
HSC Francisco
I am using the high-speed craft Francisco as an example of the way these ships are progressing.
- Power comes from two gas-turbine engines, that run on liquified natural gas.
- It can carry 1024 passengers and 150 cars.
- It has a top speed of 58 knots or 67 mph. Not bad for a ship with a tonnage of over 7000.
This ship is in service between Buenos Aires and Montevideo.
Note.
- A craft like this could be designed to run on zero-carbon liquid hydrogen or liquid ammonia.
- A high speed craft already runs between Dublin and Holyhead taking one hour and forty-nine minutes for the sixty-seven miles.
Other routes for a specially designed high speed craft might be.
- Barrow and Belfast – 113 miles
- Heysham and Belfast – 127 miles
- Holyhead and Belfast – 103 miles
- Liverpool and Belfast – 145 miles
- Stranraer and Larne – 31 miles
Belfast looks a bit far from England, but Holyhead and Belfast could be a possibility.
London And Dublin Via Holyhead
I believe this route is definitely a possibility.
- In a few years, with a few improvements on the route, I suspect that London Euston and Holyhead could be fairly close to three hours.
- With faster bi-mode trains, Manchester Airport and Holyhead would be under three hours.
- I would estimate, that a high speed craft built for the route could be under two hours between Holyhead and Dublin.
It certainly looks like London Euston and Dublin and Manchester Airport and Dublin would be under five hours.
In A Glimpse Of 2035, I imagined what it would be like to be on the first train between London and Dublin via the proposed fixed link between Scotland and Northern Ireland.
- I felt that five-and-a-half hours was achievable for that journey.
- The journey would have used High Speed Two to Wigan North Western.
- I also stated that with improvements, London and Belfast could be three hours and Dublin would be an hour more.
So five hours between London Euston and Dublin using current technology without massive improvements and new lines could be small change well spent.
London And Belfast Via Holyhead
At 103 miles the ferry leg may be too long for even the fastest of the high speed craft, but if say the craft could do Holyhead and Belfast in two-and-a-half hours, it might just be a viable route.
- It might also be possible to run the ferries to a harbour like Warrenpoint, which would be eighty-six miles.
- An estimate based on the current high speed craft to Dublin, indicates a time of around two hours and twenty minutes.
It could be viable, if there was a fast connection between Warrenpoint and Belfast.
Conclusion
Once the new trains are running between London Euston and Holyhead, I would expect that an Irish entrepreneur will be looking to develop a fast train and ferry service between England and Wales, and the island of Ireland.
It could be sold, as the Greenest Way To Ireland.
Class 807 Trains
Avanti West Coast have ordered ten electric Class 807 trains, which will replace some of the diesel Class 221 trains.
- They will run at 125 mph between Euston and Liverpool on the fully-electrified route.
- If full in-cab digital signalling were to be installed on the route, they may be able to run at 140 mph in places.
- These trains appear to be the first of the second generation of Hitachi trains and they seem to be built for speed and a sparking performance,
- These trains will run at a frequency of two trains per hour (tph) between London and Liverpool Lime Street.
- Alternate trains will stop at Liverpool South Parkway station.
In Will Avanti West Coast’s New Trains Be Able To Achieve London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street In Two Hours?, I came to the conclusion, that a two-hour journey time was possible, when the new Class 807 trains have entered service.
London And Belfast Via Liverpool And A Ferry
Consider.
- An hour on the train to and from London will be saved compared to Holyhead.
- The ferry terminal is in Birkenhead on the other side of the Mersey and change between Lime Street station and the ferry could take much longer than at Holyhead.
- Birkenhead and Belfast is twice the distance of Holyhead and Dublin, so even a high speed craft would take three hours.
This Google Map shows the Ferry Terminal and the Birkenhead waterfront.
Note.
- The Ferry Terminal is indicated by the red arrow at the top of the map.
- There are rows of trucks waiting for the ferries.
- In the South East corner of the map, the terminal of the Mersey Ferry sticks out into the River
- Hamilton Square station is in-line with the Mersey Ferry at the bottom of the map and indicated with the usual red symbol.
- There is a courtesy bus from Hamilton Square station to the Ferry Terminal for Ireland.
There is a fourteen tph service between Hamilton Square and Liverpool Lime Street station.
This route may be possible, but the interchange could be slow and the ferry leg is challenging.
I don’t think the route would be viable unless a much faster ferry is developed. Does the military have some high speed craft under development?
Conclusion
London and Belfast via Liverpool and a ferry is probably a trip for enthusiasts or those needing to spend a day in Liverpool en route.
Other Ferry Routes
There are other ferry routes.
Heysham And Barrow-in-Furness
,These two ports might be possible, but neither has a good rail connection to London and the South of England.
They are both rail connected, but not to the standard of the connections at Holyhead and Liverpool.
Cairnryan
The Cairnryan route could probably be improved to be an excellent low-carbon route to Glasgow and Central Scotland.
Low-Carbon Flight Between The Islands Of Great Britain And Ireland
I think we’ll gradually see a progression to zero-carbon flight over the next few years.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Obviously zero-carbon would be better, but until zero-carbon aircraft are developed, there is always sustainable aviation fuel.
This can be produced from various carbon sources like biowaste or even household rubbish and disposable nappies.
British Airways are involved in a project called Altalto.
- Altalto are building a plant at Immingham to turn household rubbish into sustainable aviation fuel.
- This fuel can be used in jet airliners with very little modification of the aircraft.
I wrote about Altalto in Grant Shapps Announcement On Friday.
Smaller Low-Carbon Airliners
The first low- and zero-carbon airliners to be developed will be smaller with less range, than Boeing 737s and Airbus A 320s. These three are examples of four under development.
- Aura Aero Era – 19 passengers – 500 miles
- Eviation Alice – 9 passengers – 620 miles
- Faradair Aerospace BEHA – 19 passengers – 1150 miles
- Heart Aerospace ES-19 – 19 passengers – 400 km.
I feel that a nineteen seater aircraft with a range of 500 miles will be the first specially designed low- or zero-carbon airliner to be developed.
I believe these aircraft will offer advantages.
- Some routes will only need refuelling at one end.
- Lower noise and pollution.
- Some will have the ability to work from short runways.
- Some will be hybrid electric running on sustainable aviation fuel.
They may enable passenger services to some smaller airports.
Air Routes Between The Islands Of Great Britain And Ireland
These are distances from Belfast City Airport.
- Aberdeen – 228 miles
- Amsterdam – 557 miles
- Birmingham – 226 miles
- Blackpool – 128 miles
- Cardiff – 246 miles
- Edinburgh – 135 miles
- Gatwick – 337 miles
- Glasgow – 103 miles
- Heathrow – 312 miles
- Jersey – 406 miles
- Kirkwall – 320 miles
- Leeds – 177 miles
- Liverpool – 151 miles
- London City – 326 miles
- Manchester – 170 miles
- Newcastle – 168 miles
- Southampton – 315 miles
- Southend – 344 miles
- Stansted – 292 miles
- Sumburgh – 401 miles
Note.
- Some airports on this list do not currently have flights from Belfast City Airport.
- I have included Amsterdam for comparison.
- Distances to Belfast International Airport, which is a few miles to the West of Belfast City Airport are within a few miles of these distances.
It would appear that much of Great Britain is within 500 miles of Belfast City Airport.
These are distances from Dublin Airport.
- Aberdeen – 305 miles
- Amsterdam – 465 miles
- Birmingham – 199 miles
- Blackpool – 133 miles
- Cardiff – 185 miles
- Edinburgh – 208 miles
- Gatwick – 300 miles
- Heathrow – 278 miles
- Jersey – 339 miles
- Kirkwall – 402 miles
- Leeds – 190 miles
- Liverpool – 140 miles
- London City – 296 miles
- Manchester – 163 miles
- Newcastle – 214 miles
- Southampton – 268 miles
- Southend – 319 miles
- Stansted – 315 miles
- Sumburgh – 483 miles
Note.
- Some airports on this list do not currently have flights from Dublin Airport.
- I have included Amsterdam for comparison.
It would appear that much of Great Britain is within 500 miles of Dublin Airport.
I will add a few long routes, that someone might want to fly.
- Cork and Aberdeen – 447 miles
- Derry and Manston – 435 miles
- Manston and Glasgow – 392 miles
- Newquay and Aberdeen – 480 miles
- Norwich and Stornaway – 486 miles.
I doubt there are many possible air services in the UK and Ireland that are longer than 500 miles.
I have a few general thoughts about low- and zero-carbon air services in and around the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
- The likely five hundred mile range of the first generation of low- and zero-carbon airliners fits the size of the these islands well.
- These aircraft seem to have a cruising speed of between 200 and 250 mph, so flight times will not be unduly long.
- Airports would need to have extra facilities to refuel or recharge these airliners.
- Because of their size, there will need to be more flights on busy routes.
- Routes which are less heavily used may well be developed, as low- or zero-carbon could be good for marketing the route.
I suspect they could be ideal for the development of new routes and even new eco-friendly airports.
Conclusion
I have come to the conclusion, that smaller low- or zero-carbon are a good fit for the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
But then Flybe and Loganair have shown that you can make money flying smaller planes around these islands with the right planes, airports, strategy and management.
Hydrogen-Powered Planes From Airbus
Hydrogen-powered zero-carbon aircraft could be the future and Airbus have put down a marker as to the way they are thinking.
Airbus have proposed three different ZEROe designs, which are shown in this infographic.
The turboprop and the turbofan will be the type of designs, that could be used around Great Britain and Ireland.
The ZEROe Turboprop
This is Airbus’s summary of the design for the ZEROe Turboprop.
Two hybrid hydrogen turboprop engines, which drive the six bladed propellers, provide thrust. The liquid hydrogen storage and distribution system is located behind the rear pressure bulkhead.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the plane.
It certainly is a layout that has been used successfully, by many conventionally-powered aircraft in the past. The De Havilland Canada Dash 8 and ATR 72 are still in production.
I don’t think the turboprop engines, that run on hydrogen will be a problem.
If you look at the Lockheed-Martin C 130J Super Hercules, you will see it is powered by four Rolls-Royce AE 2100D3 turboprop engines, that drive 6-bladed Dowty R391 composite constant-speed fully-feathering reversible-pitch propellers.
These Rolls-Royce engines are a development of an Allison design, but they also form the heart of Rolls-Royce’s 2.5 MW Generator, that I wrote about in Our Sustainability Journey. The generator was developed for use in Airbus’s electric flight research program.
I wouldn’t be surprised to find the following.
- , The propulsion system for this aircraft is under test with hydrogen at Derby and Toulouse.
- Dowty are testing propellers suitable for the aircraft.
- Serious research is ongoing to store enough liquid hydrogen in a small tank that fits the design.
Why develop something new, when Rolls-Royce, Dowty and Lockheed have done all the basic design and testing?
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the front view of the plane.
From clues in the picture, I estimate that the fuselage diameter is around four metres. Which is not surprising, as the Airbus A320 has a height of 4.14 metres and a with of 3.95 metres. But it’s certainly larger than the fuselage of an ATR-72.
So is the ZEROe Turboprop based on a shortened Airbus A 320 fuselage?
- The ATR 72 has a capacity of 70 passengers.
- The ZEROe Turboprop has a capacity of less than a hundred passengers.
- An Airbus A320 has six-abreast seating.
- Could the ZEROe Turboprop have sixteen rows of seats, as there are sixteen windows in front of the wing?
- With the seat pitch of an Airbus A 320, which is 81 centimetres, this means just under thirteen metres for the passengers.
- There could be space for a sizeable hydrogen tank in the rear part of the fuselage.
- The plane might even be able to use the latest A 320 cockpit.
It looks to me, that Airbus have designed a larger ATR 72 based on an A 320 fuselage.
I don’t feel there are any great technical challenges in building this aircraft.
- The engines appear to be conventional and could even have been more-or-less fully developed.
- The fuselage could be a development of an existing design.
- The wings and tail-plane are not large and given the company’s experience with large composite structures, they shouldn’t be too challenging.
- The hydrogen storage and distributing system will have to be designed, but as hydrogen is being used in increasing numbers of applications, I doubt the expertise will be difficult to find.
- The avionics and other important systems could probably be borrowed from other Airbus products.
Given that the much larger and more complicated Airbus A380 was launched in 2000 and first flew in 2005, I think that a prototype of this aircraft could fly around the middle of this decade.
It may seem small at less than a hundred seats, but it does have a range of greater than a 1000 nautical miles or 1150 miles.
Consider.
- It compares closely in passenger capacity, speed and range, with the De Havilland Canada Dash 8/400 and the ATR 72/600.
- The ATR 72 is part-produced by Airbus.
- The aircraft is forty percent slower than an Airbus A 320.
- It looks like it could be designed to have a Short-Takeoff-And Landing (STOL) capability.
I can see the aircraft replacing Dash 8s, ATR 72s and similar aircraft all over the world. There are between 2000 and 3000 operational airliners in this segment.
The ZEROe Turbofan
This is Airbus’s summary of the design.
Two hybrid hydrogen turbofan engines provide thrust. The liquid hydrogen storage and distribution system is located behind the rear pressure bulkhead.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the plane.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the front view of the plane.
The aircraft doesn’t look very different different to an Airbus A320 and appears to be fairly conventional. It does appear to have the characteristic tall winglets of the A 320 neo.
I don’t think the turbofan engines, that run on hydrogen will be a problem.
These could be standard turbofan engines modified to run on hydrogen, fuelled from a liquid hydrogen tank behind the rear pressure bulkhead of the fuselage.
If you want to learn more about gas turbine engines and hydrogen, read this article on the General Electric web site, which is entitled The Hydrogen Generation: These Gas Turbines Can Run On The Most Abundant Element In the Universe,
These are my thoughts of the marketing objectives of the ZEROe Turbofan.
- The cruising speed and the number of passengers are surprisingly close, so has this aircraft been designed as an A 320 or Boeing 737 replacement?
- I suspect too, that it has been designed to be used at any airport, that could handle an Airbus A 320 or Boeing 737.
- It would be able to fly point-to-point flights between most pairs of European or North American cities.
It would certainly fit the zero-carbon shorter range airliner market!
In fact it would more than fit the market, it would define it!
I very much believe that Airbus’s proposed zero-carbon hydrogen-powered designs and others like them will start to define aviation on routes of up to perhaps 3000 miles, from perhaps 2035.
- The A 320 neo was launched in December 2010 and entered service in January 2016. That was just five years and a month.
- I suspect that a lot of components like the fuselage sections, cockpit, avionics, wings, landing gear, tailplane and cabin interior could be the same in a A 320 neo and a ZEROe Turbofan.
- Flying surfaces and aerodynamics could be very similar in an A 320 neo and a ZEROe Turbofan
- There could even be commonality between the ZEROe Turboprop and the ZEROe Turbofan, with respect to fuselage sections, cockpit, avionics and cabin interior.
There also must be the possibility, that if a ZEROe Turbofan is a hydrogen-powered A 320 neo, that this would enable the certification process to be simplified.
It might even be possible to remanufacture a A 320 neo into a ZEROe Turbofan. This would surely open up all sorts of marketing strategies.
My project management, flying and engineering knowledge says that if they launched the ZEROe Turbofan this year, it could be in service by the end of the decade on selected routes.
Conclusion
Both the ZEROe Turboprop and ZEROe Turbofan are genuine zero-carbon aircraft, which fit into two well-defined market segments.
I believe that these two aircraft and others like them from perhaps Boeing and Bombardier could be the future of aviation between say 500 and 3000 miles.
With the exception of the provision of hydrogen refuelling at airports, there will be no need for any airport infrastructure.
I also wouldn’t be surprised that the thinking Airbus appear to have applied to creating the ZEROe Turbofan from the successful A 320 neo, could be applied to perhaps create a hydrogen-powered A 350.
I feel that Airbus haven’t fulling disclosed their thinking. But then no company would, when it reinvents itself.
T also think that short-haul air routes will increasing come under pressure.
The green lobby would like airlines to decarbonise.
Governments will legislate that airlines must decarbonise.
The rail industry will increasingly look to attract customers away from the airlines, by providing more competitive times and emphasising their green credentials.
Aircraft manufacturers will come under pressure to deliver zero-carbon airliners as soon as they can.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a prototype ZEROe Turbofan or Boeing’s equivalent fly as early as 2024.
Short Term Solutions
As I said earlier, one solution is to use existing aircraft with Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
But many believe this is greenwash and rather a cop out.
So we must do better!
I don’t believe that the smaller zero- and low-carbon aircraft with a range of up to 500 miles and a capacity of around 19 seats, will be able to handle all the passengers needing to fly between and around the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
- A Boeing 737 or Airbus A 320 has a capacity of around two hundred passengers, which would require ten times the number of flights, aircraft and pilots.
- Airports would need expansion on the airside and the terminals to handle the extra planes.
- Air Traffic Control would need to be expanded to handle the extra planes.
But the smaller planes would be ideal for the thinner secondary routes.
So I tend to think, that the greens will have to lump it, as Sustainable Aviation Fuel will increasingly be the only viable solution.
This will increase the need for Airbus or Boeing to develop a viable A 320 or 737-sized aircraft as soon as possible.
Air Bridges
I said earlier, that I believe using ferries between Ireland and Holyhead and new bi-mode Class 805 trains between London Euston and Holyhead could be a competitor to airlines.
- The ferries would be high speed craft capable of Holyhead and Ireland in around 90-100 minutes.
- The ferries would be zero-carbon.
- The trains would have a sixty percent reduction in carbon emissions compared to current trains on the route.
If we can skim across the water in a zero-carbon high speed craft, are there any reasons we can’t cross the water in a low- or zero-carbon aircraft.
In the next few sub-sections, I’ll suggest a few air bridges.
Glasgow
Glasgow Airport could be an ideal airport for a low or zero-carbon air bridge to Northern Ireland.
- A rail link could eventually be built.
- There is a reasonable amount of traffic.
- The distance to Belfast City Airport is only 103 miles.
As the airport serves islands and other places that could be ideal low- and zero-carbon routes, I could see Glasgow becoming a hub for battery and hydrogen-powered aircraft.
Heathrow
Heathrow must prepare itself for an uncertain future.
It will be some years before a third runway is both needed and will have been constructed.
I believe the following will happen.
- Smaller up to nineteen seat low- or zero-carbon airliners will be in service by 2025.
- From around 2024, Heathrow will get requests to refuel or charge low- or zero-carbon airliners.
- Low- or-zero- carbon A 320-size airliners will be in service by 2030.
- Most ground equipment at Heathrow like tugs and fuel bowsers will be zero-carbon.
If I were Boris or Prime Minister, I would say that Heathrow could have its third runway with the following conditions.
- All aircraft using the third runway must be zero-carbon
- All air-side vehicles must be zero-carbon.
- All vehicles bringing passengers on the last mile to the airport must be zero-carbon.
- All aircraft using the airport that are not zero-carbon must use sustainable aviation fuel.
I suspect that the conditions would be met by a large margin.
When an airport knows it is effectively going to be closed, it will make sure it survives.
Liverpool
Liverpool Airport could be an ideal airport for a low or zero-carbon air bridge to the island of Ireland.
- There is a nearby Liverpool South Parkway station, with frequent services to both the local area and places further away.
- An improved London train service starts in 2022 or 2023.
- There would need to be a people mover between the station and the airport.
- The airport can probably have piped hydrogen from across the Mersey.
- There is already significant traffic to and from the island of Ireland.
- Flight times Between Liverpool and Dublin and Belfast would be under an hour.
I also feel that Liverpool could develop lots of other low- and zero-carbon routes to perhaps Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Norwich, Southampton and the Isle of Man.
I could even see Liverpool having a Turn-Up-And-Go shuttle service to Dublin and Belfast, with small zero-carbon planes running every fifteen minutes or so.
Manston
I wouldn’t rule out Manston as a low- and zero-carbon airport for flights to the Benelux countries and Northern France and parts of Germany.
These are a few distances from Manston Airport.
- Amsterdam – 160 miles
- Brussels – 134 miles
- Cologne – 253 miles
- Dusseldorf – 234 miles
- Frankfurt – 328 miles
- Geneva – 414 miles
- Hamburg – 396 miles
- Le Touquet – 59 miles
- Lille – 49 miles
- Luxembourg – 243 miles
- Ostend – 66 miles
- Strasbourg – 339 miles
Manston’s position on the tip of Kent gives it an advantage and I think low- and zero-carbon services could reach Cologne, Frankfurt, Geneva, Hamburg and Strasbourg.
The airport also has other advantages.
- A big electrolyser to produce hydrogen is being built at Herne Bay.
- The area is rich in wind and solar energy.
- I suspect the airspace to the East of the airport isn’t very busy and short hops to the Continent could be easy to slot in.
There is a new station being built at Thanet Parkway, which is on the Ashford and Ramsgate Line, which has regular services to London, including some services on High Speed One.
This Google Map shows the location of the airport and the station.
Note.
- The runway of Manston Airport.
- The Ashford and Ramsgate Line running across the South-East corner of the map.
- The station could be built to the West of the village of Cliffsend, which is indicated by the red arrow.
- I’m sure, a people mover or a zero-carbon bus could be built to connect the station and the airport.
There would need to be improvements in the frequency of services to and from London, but I’m sure Manston Airport could become an ideal airport for low- and zero-carbon aircraft serving the near Continent.
Southampton
Southampton Airport could be the ideal design for an airport to serve an air bridge.
- The Southampton Airport Parkway station is connected to the terminal.
- The station has numerous rail services, including a fast service to and from London.
- The airport is expanding and could make sure all works are compatible with a low- and zero-carbon future.
Southampton is not ideally placed for services to Ireland, but with low- and zero-carbon aircraft it could be ideal for running services to the Channel Islands and Western France.
Other Airports
I suspect other airports will go the low- and zero-carbon route.
Conclusion
I started this post, with the intention of writing about writing about low- and zero-carbon transport between the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
But it has grown.
I have now come to the conclusion that there are several low- and zero-carbon routes that could be developed.
The most promising would appear to be.
- London Euston and Belfast by new Class 805 train to Holyhead and then zero-carbon high speed ferry.
- London Euston and Dublin by new Class 805 train to Holyhead and then zero-carbon high speed ferry.
- Glasgow and Belfast by train to Cairnryan and then zero-carbon high speed ferry.
- Point-to-point air routes using new small nineteen seat low- or zero-carbon airliners with a range of 500 miles.
- London Euston and Belfast by new Class 807 train to Liverpool Airport and then smaller low- or zero-carbon airliner.
- London Euston and Dublin by new Class 807 train to Liverpool Airport and then and then smaller low- or zero-carbon airliner.
- Other air bridges will develop.
But I am fairly certain by the end of the decade, there will be A320-size airlines powered by hydrogen taking us to Ireland and Western Europe.
I believe that the survival and ultimate prospering of Airbus and Boeing depends on the development of a range of zero-carbon airliners.
For this reason alone, they will succeed.



























