The Anonymous Widower

High Speed Two And Scotland

In this post, I will only look at services and capacity.

I will leave the economics to others with the appropriate data.

Current Anglo-Scottish Services

Currently, these services run between England and Edinburgh Waverley and Glasgow Central stations.

• 1 train per hour (tph) – Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Carlisle.
• 1 train per two hours (tp2h) – Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Milton Keynes Central, Coventry, Birmingham International, Birmingham New Street, Sandwell and Dudley, Wolverhampton, Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Carlisle.
• 1 tp2h – CrossCountry – South-West England and Edinburgh Waverley via Bristol Temple Meads, Birmingham New Street, Derby, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Wakefield Westgate, Leeds, York and Newcastle.
• 1 tp2h – CrossCountry – South-West England and Glasgow Central via Bristol Temple Meads, Birmingham New Street, Derby, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Wakefield Westgate, Leeds, York, Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley.
• 1 tph – LNER – London Kings Cross and Edinburgh Waverley via York, Darlington, Newcastle and Berwick-upon-Tweed
• 1 tph – LNER – London Kings Cross and Edinburgh Waverley via Peterborough, Newark North Gate, Doncaster, York, Northallerton, Darlington, Durham and Newcastle
• 1 tph – TransPennine Express – Liverpool Lime Street and Edinburgh Waverley via Newton-le-Willows, Manchester Victoria, Huddersfield, Leeds, York, Darlington, Durham, Newcastle and Morpeth
• 1 tp2h – TransPennine Express – Manchester Airport and Edinburgh Waverley via Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Oxford Road, Bolton, Preston, Lancaster and Carlisle.
• 3 trains per day (tpd) – TransPennine Express – Liverpool Lime Street and Glasgow Central via St. Helen’s Central, Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster and Carlisle.
• 1 tp2h – TransPennine Express – Manchester Airport and Glasgow Central via Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Oxford Road, Bolton, Preston, Lancaster and Carlisle.

Note.

1. I’ve not included service extensions to Aberdeen and Inverness.
2. I’ve cut out a few smaller stations
3. Some services call at both Edinburgh and Glasgow.
4. Because of signalling and track improvements it is likely that London Kings Cross and Edinburgh timings will come down to four hours.

The services can be roughly summarised as follows.

• Birmingham and Edinburgh – 0.5 tph
• Birmingham and Glasgow – 1 tph
• London and Edinburgh – 2 tph
• London and Glasgow – 1.5 tph
• Leeds and Edinburgh – 1.5 tph
• Leeds and Glasgow – 0.5 tph
• Liverpool and Edinburgh – 1 tph
• Liverpool and Glasgow – 3 tpd
• Manchester and Edinburgh – 1.5 tph
• Manchester and Glasgow – 0.5 tph
• Manchester Airport and Edinburgh – 0.5 tph
• Manchester Airport and Glasgow – 0.5 tph

Note.

1. I have ignored the five tpd London Kings Cross and Edinburgh service, that starts next year, which will be run by East Coast Trains.
2. 0.5 tph is equivalent to one tp2h.

It looks a fairly well-balanced and comprehensive service.

High Speed Two Anglo-Scottish Services

According to a table in the June 2020 Edition of Modern Railways, these High Speed Two services will run between England and Edinburgh Waverley and Glasgow Central.

• 1 tph – London Euston and Edinburgh Waverley via Old Oak Common, Preston, Carlisle and Edinburgh Haymarket
• 1 tph – London Euston and Edinburgh Waverley via Old Oak Common, Birmingham Interchange, Preston, Carlisle and Edinburgh Haymarket
• 1 tph – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Old Oak Common, Preston and Carlisle
• 1 tph – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Old Oak Common, Birmingham Interchange, Preston and Carlisle
• 1 tp2h – Birmingham Curzon Street and Edinburgh Waverley via Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme or Penrith, Carlisle and Edinburgh Haymarket.
• 1 tp2h – Birmingham Curzon Street and Glasgow Central via Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme or Penrith, Carlisle, Lockerbie and Motherwell.

Note.

1. All trains will be High Speed Two’s 200 metre long Classic-Compatible trains.
2. The four one tph services will run as two pairs of trains and split and join at Carlisle.

The services can be roughly summarised as follows.

• Birmingham and Edinburgh – 1.5 tph
• Birmingham and Glasgow – 1.5 tph
• London and Edinburgh – 2 tph
• London and Glasgow – 2 tph

Note.

1. Passengers between Liverpool or Manchester and Scotland will have to change at Preston.
2. There is no connection between the Eastern Leg of High Speed Two and Edinburgh.
3. London and Edinburgh Waverley will take three hours and forty minutes, which saves twenty minutes on the likely four hours on the East Coast Main Line.
4. London and Glasgow Central will take three hours and forty minutes, which saves fifty minutes on the current time.

High Speed Two certainly provides good services between London, Birmingham and Scotland, but it leaves out travelling between the cities of the North and North of the Border.

High Speed Two Classic-Conventional Trains

In Thoughts On Class 807 Trains And High Speed Two’s Classic-Compatible Trains, I discussed a design of Classic-Compatible High Speed Two train based on the recently-ordered Class 807 trains for Avanti West Coast.

Except for the required speeds, the specifications of the  trains are similar and this was my conclusion.

I wouldn’t be surprised that Hitachi’s offering for more trains on the West Coast Main Line and the Classic-Compatible trains for High Speed Two are very similar to the Class 807 trains.

• • The Classic-Compatible trains for High Speed Two could be eight-car trains with twenty-five metre cars.
  • The replacements for the eleven-car Class 390 trains could be nine-car trains with twenty-six metre cars.

Both would be based on the Class 807 train.

A common design would surely ease operation of the combined West Coast Partnership.

TransPennine Express Between Liverpool Lime Street And Edinburgh

Will this TransPennine Express service still be the primary connection between the North of England and Edinburgh?

• It has a frequency of one tph.
• It takes about four hours and fifty minutes.
• It connects Liverpool, Manchester, Huddersfield, Leeds, York, Darlington, Durham and Newcastle to the Scottish capital.
• According to Real Time Trains, it runs as far as York on diesel and then using the electrification.

Current plans envisage Northern Powerhouse Rail will create an electrified route across the Pennines.

This report on the Transport for the North web site, is entitled At A Glance – Northern Powerhouse Rail.

It gives these times and frequencies for the various legs of the route.

• Liverpool and Manchester via Manchester Airport – 26 minutes – 6 tph
• Manchester and Leeds – 25 minutes – 6 tph
• Leeds and Newcastle – 58 minutes – 4 tph
• Newcastle and Edinburgh – 90 minutes

This totals to three hours and nineteen minutes.

Note.

1. The Newcastle and Edinburgh time is that currently achievable today by Class 801 trains.
2. Liverpool and Manchester city centres have a six tph high speed service via Manchester Airport.
3. Manchester and Edinburgh will be under three hours.
4. Leeds and Edinburgh will be under two-and-a-half hours.
5. The Manchester and Manchester Airport leg could be shared with High Speed Two.

Most of this will be achievable with the current TransPennine Express Class 802 trains, which are capable of 140 mph.

In addition, I think that it is likely that the East Coast Main Line will be upgraded between York and Newcastle  for High Speed Two.

Liverpool Lime Street and Edinburgh will unlikely be to High Speed Two standards, but it could match the standards of the East Coast Main Line.

Improvements To The East Coast Main Line Between Newcastle and Edinburgh

Consider

• There have been reports that the power supply on the route is not very robust and Class 800 and Class 802 trains have to use diesel power.
• The route is fairly straight and could probably be partially-upgraded for 140 mph running with appropriate signalling.
• The route carries about five tph in both directions. Modern digital signalling could probably double this frequency.
• The Scottish Government has suggested adding new stations at East Linton and Reston.
• Edinburgh and Newcastle are 124.5 miles apart and trains typically take ninety minutes.

In addition, High Speed Two might like to extend some or all of their three Newcastle services to Edinburgh.

• 1 tph – Birmingham Curzon Street and Newcastle via East Midlands Hub, York, Darlington and Durham
• 1 tph – London Euston and Newcastle via Old Oak Common and York
• 1 tph – London Euston and Newcastle via Old Oak Common, York and Darlington.

High Speed Two will run between London Euston and Newcastle in two hours and seventeen minutes.

I think it could be possible, that an upgraded Newcastle and Edinburgh route could be covered in seventy minutes by either one of High Speed Two’s Classic Compatible trains or a Class 80x train.

This could mean these timings.

• Under four hours for classic services between London Kings Cross and Edinburgh.
• Around three hours for classic services between Liverpool and Edinburgh.
• Under three-and-a-half hours for High Speed Two services between London Euston and Edinburgh.

This shows the importance of improving the East Coast Main Line to the North of Newcastle.

Improvements To The West Coast Main Line Between Carlisle and Glasgow/Edinburgh

If the frequency and speed of trains on the East Coast Main Line can be increased, what can be done on the West Coast Main Line?

Consider.

• High Speed Two are showing Carlisle and Glasgow Central as a one hour and nineteen minute journey. Avanti West Coast do the journey in one hour and eleven minutes.
• High Speed Two are showing Carlisle and Edinburgh as a one hour and eleven minute journey. Avanti West Coast do the journey in one hour and fifteen minutes.
• Could the route be fully upgraded for 140 mph running with appropriate signalling?
• In a typical hour, there are two Avanti West Coast trains and one TransPennine Express passing along all or part of the West Coast Main Line North of Carlisle.
• The route carries a total of about four tph in both directions. Modern digital signalling could probably increase this frequency.
• Hitachi and Avanti West Coast seem to be saying that their new Class 807 trains have similar performance to the Class 390 trains, but without using tilting technology.

There doesn’t appear to be the scope for such dramatic improvement in the West, as in the East, but I can still see a succession of 140 mph trains running between Carlisle and Glasgow or Edinburgh in no more than an hour and eleven minutes.

These passenger services could be running North of Carlisle, when High Speed Two is fully open.

• 2 tph – High Speed Two – London Euston and Edinburgh – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train
• 2 tph – High Speed Two – London Euston and Glasgow Central – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train
• 0.5 tph – High Speed Two – Birmingham Curzon Street and Edinburgh – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train
• 0.5 tph – High Speed Two – Birmingham Curzon Street and Glasgow Central – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train
• 0.5 tph – TransPennine Express – Manchester Airport and Edinburgh – Class 397 train
• 0.5 tph – TransPennine Express – Manchester Airport and Glasgow Central – Class 397 train
• 3 tpd – TransPennine Express – Liverpool and Glasgow Central – Class 397 train

Note.

1. I am assuming that Avanti West Coast’s services will be replaced by the High Speed Two services.
2. As the TransPennine Express services share a path, it would appear that six tph will be running between Carlisle and Edinburgh or Glasgow.

There would appear to be space for more trains on the West Coast Main Line, to the North of Carlisle.

A Few Random Thoughts

These are a few random thoughts and ideas.

Avanti West Coast And High Speed Two Classic-Compatible Trains

Avanti West Coast will have these fleets of high-speed trains.

• 11-car Class 390 electric trains, which are 265.3 metres long
• 9-car Class 390 electric trains, which are 217.5 metres long.
• 7-car Class 807 electric trains, which will be 182 metres long
• 5-car Class 805 bi-mode trains, which will be 130 metres long
• High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains, which will be 200 metres long
• Full-size High Speed Two trains, which will be 400 metres long.

It would appear that there could be some fleet simplification.

All Passenger Trains Between Newcastle Or Carlisle and Glasgow Central Or Edinburgh Should Be Capable Of Operating At 140 mph

Both the East and West Coast Main Lines between Carlisle and Newcastle in England and Edinburgh and Glasgow in Scotland are not far off being capable of running trains at 140 mph. Modern digital in-cab signalling and some track works will be needed.

Once 140 mph running is achieved, then all trains will need to be capable of making use of the speed, to maximise the capacity of the routes.

Freight Trains Between Newcastle Or Carlisle and Glasgow Central Or Edinburgh Should Be Capable Of Operating As Fast As Possible

Freight trains will need to be hauled by electric locomotives, at as high a speed as possible, to avoid slowing the express passenger trains.

More well-positioned freight loops may be needed.

Will TransPennine’s Manchester And Scotland Service Transfer To High Speed Two?

I think, that this is highly likely.

• The service would be run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
• Depending on track layout, the Liverpool and Scotland service on the West Coast Main Line could be upgraded to the High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains or discontinued.

This would mean, that  all passenger trains on the West Coast Main Line North of Lancaster would be High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.

• 2 tph – High Speed Two – London Euston and Edinburgh – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train
• 2 tph – High Speed Two – London Euston and Glasgow Central – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train
• 0.5 tph – High Speed Two – Birmingham Curzon Street and Edinburgh – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train
• 0.5 tph – High Speed Two – Birmingham Curzon Street and Glasgow Central – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train
• 0.5 tph – High Speed Two – Manchester Airport and Edinburgh – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train
• 0.5 tph – High Speed Two – Manchester Airport and Glasgow Central – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train
• 3 tpd – High Speed Two – Liverpool and Glasgow Central – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train

This must mean that if the operating speed on the West Coast Main Line were to be increased, all passenger services could take advantage, which would surely improve timings.

What About CrossCountry?

CrossCountry run a single hourly service between Plymouth and Edinburgh.

• The route goes via Bristol Temple Meads, Birmingham New Street, Derby, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Wakefield Westgate, Leeds, York, Newcastle.
• Some services are extended to Glasgow Central and Aberdeen.

Currently, this service is run by a diesel train, which surely will need to be replaced with a zero-carbon train.

Consider.

• Scotland is keen to electrify or allow electric trains to run between Edinburgh and Aberdeen.
• High Speed Two will provide an electrified route between Birmingham and York via East Midlands Hub for Derby, Chesterfield, Sheffield and Leeds.
• The likes of Hitachi and Adrian Shooter of Vivarail are very bullish about battery electric trains.
• Great Western Railway, Hitachi and Network Rail have probably hired Baldrick for a cunning plan to run battery electric trains between Bristol and Penzance.

Could it be possible for Hitachi or another manufacturer to design a High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train, with a battery capability?

A train with this specification, could be ideal for the Plymouth and Edinburgh service.

It might also be useful for these CrossCountry services.

• Southampton and Newcastle
• Bournemouth and Manchester Piccadilly
• Exeter St. Davids/Bristol and Manchester Piccadilly
• Cardiff Central and Nottingham
• Birmingham and Nottingham
• Birmingham and Stansted Airport

Note.

1. All could run on High Speed Two fpr part of the route.
2. Birmingham and Nottingham has already been proposed for running using High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train, by Midlands Engine Rail, as I wrote about in Classic-Compatible High Speed Two Trains At East Midlands Hub Station.
3. I proposed a Birmingham and Cambridge service using High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains in A Trip To Grantham Station – 4th November 2020.

High Speed Two could have a big positive effect on CrossCountry services.

Future Anglo-Scottish Services After High Speed Two Opens Fully

It is possible, that when High Speed Two fully opens, these services will run between England and Edinburgh Waverley and Glasgow Central stations.

• 1 tp2h – CrossCountry – South-West England and Edinburgh Waverley via Bristol Temple Meads, Birmingham New Street, Derby, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Wakefield Westgate, Leeds, York and Newcastle.
• 1 tp2h – CrossCountry – South-West England and Glasgow Central via Bristol Temple Meads, Birmingham New Street, Derby, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Wakefield Westgate, Leeds, York, Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley.
• 1 tph – LNER – London Kings Cross and Edinburgh Waverley via York, Darlington, Newcastle and Berwick-upon-Tweed
• 1 tph – LNER – London Kings Cross and Edinburgh Waverley via Peterborough, Newark North Gate, Doncaster, York, Northallerton, Darlington, Durham and Newcastle
• 1 tph – High Speed Two – London Euston and Edinburgh Waverley via Old Oak Common, Preston, Carlisle and Edinburgh Haymarket
• 1 tph – High Speed Two – London Euston and Edinburgh Waverley via Old Oak Common, Birmingham Interchange, Preston, Carlisle and Edinburgh Haymarket
• 1 tph – High Speed Two – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Old Oak Common, Preston and Carlisle
• 1 tph – High Speed Two – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Old Oak Common, Birmingham Interchange, Preston and Carlisle
• 1 tp2h – High Speed Two – Birmingham Curzon Street and Edinburgh Waverley via Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme or Penrith, Carlisle and Edinburgh Haymarket.
• 1 tp2h – High Speed Two – Birmingham Curzon Street and Glasgow Central via Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme or Penrith, Carlisle, Lockerbie and Motherwell.
• 1 tph – TransPennine Express – Liverpool Lime Street and Edinburgh Waverley via Newton-le-Willows, Manchester Victoria, Huddersfield, Leeds, York, Darlington, Durham, Newcastle and Morpeth
• 1 tp2h – High Speed Two – Manchester Airport and Edinburgh Waverley via Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Oxford Road, Bolton, Preston, Lancaster and Carlisle.
• 3 trains per day (tpd) – High Speed Two – Liverpool Lime Street and Glasgow Central via St. Helen’s Central, Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster and Carlisle.
• 1 tp2h – High Speed Two – Manchester Airport and Glasgow Central via Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Oxford Road, Bolton, Preston, Lancaster and Carlisle.

Note.

1. I have assumed that the Liverpool/Manchester services to Scotland via the West Coast Main Line have transferred to High Speed Two.
2. All trains would be run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.

The services can be roughly summarised as follows.

• Birmingham and Edinburgh – 1.5 tph (0.5 tph)
• Birmingham and Glasgow – 1.5 tph (1 tph)
• London and Edinburgh – 4 tph (2 tph)
• London and Glasgow – 2 tph (1.5 tph)
• Leeds and Edinburgh – 1.5 tph (1.5 tph)
• Leeds and Glasgow – 0.5 tph (0.5 tph)
• Liverpool and Edinburgh – 1 tph (1 tph)
• Liverpool and Glasgow – 3 tpd (3 tpd)
• Manchester and Edinburgh – 1.5 tph (1.5 tph)
• Manchester and Glasgow – 0.5 tph (0.5 tph)
• Manchester Airport and Edinburgh – 0.5 tph (0.5 tph)
• Manchester Airport and Glasgow – 0.5 tph (0.5 tph)

Note.

1. My estimates for the number of trains in the future, are probably best described as minimum figures.
2. The figures in brackets are the current frequencies.
3. Currently, there are eleven express trains between England and Scotland and after High Speed Two is fully open there could be at least fifteen express trains.

I have a few final thoughts.

Capacity Between England And Scotland

Capacity of the current and future Anglo-Scottish trains is as follows.

• High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train – 500-600
• Eleven-car Class 390 train – 589
• Nine-car Class 800 train – 611

It appears that the all the longer trains have roughly the same capacity.

As there are now eleven Anglo-Scottish long trains and these will be increased to fifteen, that indicates an minimum 36 % increase in capacity.

Will High Speed Two And Northern Powerhouse Rail Share A Route Across The Pennines?

Northern Powerhouse Rail have talked about extending High Speed Two services from Manchester to Huddersfield, Leeds, Hull, York and Newcastle.

I wrote about this in Changes Signalled For HS2 Route In North.

I like this plan for the following reasons.

It gives more places like Huddersfield and Hull access to High Speed Two.

It increases frequencies across the North.

But most importantly, as infrastructure is shared, it saves a lot of money.

It also opens up possibilities for services.

• The Liverpool and Edinburgh service could be run on the High Speed Two route across the Pennines and up the East Coast Main Line.
• London and Manchester services could be extends to Leeds, York, Newcastle and Scotland.

If Northern Powerhouse Rail were to be cleared for High Speed Two’s Full-Size trains, it opens up the possibility of running them further North.

Conclusion

High Speed Two will increase Anglo-Scottish capacity by more than a third.

November 13, 2020 Posted by AnonW | Transport/Travel | Adrian Shooter, At A Glance – Northern Powerhouse Rail, Avanti West Coast, Class 390 Train, Class 802 Train, Class 805 Train, Class 807 Train, CrossCountry Trains, East Coast Main Line, High Speed Two, High Speed Two Classic-Compatible Trains, LNER, Lumo, Midlands Engine Rail, TransPennine Express, West Coast Main Line | Leave a comment